If Jordan Played in Today’s NBA
Following the release of The Last Dance documentary, the question of how many points Michael Jordan would average in today’s NBA dominated basketball discussions amongst fans and media alike.
Talk-show hosts, sports commentators, and even former coaches and players, including Shaq, chimed in on the subject. The general consensus was that “Jordan would average 40”.
That estimate is surely on the high end, considering James Harden had one of the greatest scoring seasons of all time when he averaged 36.1 ppg during the 2018–19 season. It’s not that Jordan wouldn’t be able to average 40 in today’s NBA, but realistically what would he average in a season where he is looking to score efficiently to help his team win games? That number is probably lower, and by using league averages as stat adjustments, a potentially more accurate estimate of it could be derived.
Keeping number of games played constant, players’ stats dating back to the 1996–97 season were adjusted using league averages. This includes points, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, blocks, personal fouls, offensive rating, and defensive rating. Minutes and number of possessions were also adjusted. The frenetic pace of today’s league means players are averaging fewer minutes per game than they did in past seasons, as shown by the graph below.
The calculations consisted of comparing league averages from one season to that of the 2019–20 season and then applying a multiplier to the player’s statistics for that given season. The top 50 seasons in points per game resulting from these adjustments are shown here (minimum 1,000 minutes played): https://rpubs.com/np19Stats/ptsLeaders
Michael Jordan’s 1996–97 and 1997–98 seasons are ranked 31st and 23rd, respectively. In both seasons, he averaged between 31 and 32 points per game in 2019–20 season’s values — which falls below the expected 40 points per game by a healthy margin.
The leaders in adjusted assists and efficiency per game are also provided below. Efficiency, or “EFF”, is defined as the number of points a player scored relative to league average shooting percentages (FG%, 3P%, FT%).
