A New and Complete Way to Measure Scoring

Scoring is all about two things: volume and efficiency.

Volume is the number of points scored by a player. The different ways of measuring scoring volume include looking at total points over an entire season, points per game, points per minute, or points per possession. Although the latter two might be slightly better at accurately quantifying scoring volume, points per game is still the preferred method simply because it’s more intuitive.

Efficiency looks at the number of tries it took for the player to obtain those points. The current gold standard for measuring scoring efficiency is true shooting percentage, which combines field goal and free throw efficiency, and also adjusts for the fact that three pointers are worth more than two pointers.

The formula above says to divide a player’s total points by the number of used possessions. “Using a possession” means taking a shot (FGA) or going to the free throw line (and-1’s don’t count). The formula estimates the number of possession-ending free throws by multiplying free throw attempts (FTA) by a constant value (0.44). Multiplying the denominator by two brings the value of TS% below 1 so it can be converted into a percentage.

True shooting percentage estimates the number of possession-ending free throws using the 0.44 coefficient. It is possible to calculate a similar metric as true shooting percentage without estimating. The steps are shown below.

First, calculate the number of possessions a player was on the floor. This can be done a number of ways. Using minutes played and PACE is one of them.

Next, a stat known as usage percentage (USG%) can be used to calculate the number of used possessions. Using USG% is the alternative to estimating used possessions using the 0.44 coefficient. USG% includes turnovers as part of used possessions but that is okay.

Lastly, divide points by the number of used possessions just like how it is done in the formula for true shooting percentage.

This essentially gives a non-estimated version of true shooting percentage. In the 2018–19 season, Mitchell Robinson ranked first in both true shooting percentage and points per used possession. Stephen Curry was also amongst the top players in these categories and he had nearly 1,500 more points than Robinson for the season. Is it fair to say Robinson was more efficient?

There is a clear need to build a smarter efficiency metric, so to speak. This can be done by first finding the league average of points per used possession; multiplying this by the number of possession used by a player; and finally subtracting the result from the player’s total season points.

This difference essentially indicates how much better a player would have been compared to an average player in his shoes. The top five most efficient players of the 2018–19 season, according to the new metric, are now Stephen Curry, James Harden, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Danilo Gallinari.

All that’s left is to incorporate scoring volume into the metric. Simply adding the difference (which could be negative) calculated in the previous step to the player’s total points and then dividing that value by the number of games played will give an efficiency-adjusted points per game.

The top five scoring seasons of players since the 1996–97 season were found using the metric. They have been ranked below based on their scoring performance during these seasons. Top 20 are shown.